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SMM Base Metals Weekly Price Review and Forecast (Feb. 2-6, 2015)

Release time:2015-02-03

Feb 03, 2015 01:58 GMT   Source:SMM

 

SHANGHAI, Feb. 3 (SMM) – Negative news flooded in last week. Greece’s radical left-wing part won election, pressuring the euro zone. US stock markets fell due to disappointing earnings reports from major companies. The US dollar stayed firm as minutes from the US Fed’s latest policy meeting point to slightly hawkish tone. China industrial profit fell. Chinese yuan weakened significantly. As a result, base metals took a hammering, with SMMI lost 2.46%. SMMI.Cu fell 3.95% as inventories kept increasing. SMMI.Zn dropped 1.7% due to flooding of imported zinc into Chinese market. SMMI.Al shed 0.67% as ample supply caused spot discounts to widen. SMMI.Pb slid 0.19% as month-end cash crunch left smelters in a rush to move goods. SMMI.Ni, however, gained 3.24% as nickel prices in domestic market followed LME nickel up. SMMI.Ni rose 0.44%.    Copper  Chinese A-shares tumbled 2.7% last week, and SHFE copper prices remained at RMB 39,200-40,400/mt. Sharp swings of the yuan’s exchange rates once sent SHFE copper to a low of RMB 38,860/mt. The SHFE/LME copper price ratio held steady at 7.25. Holdings in SHFE copper soared more than 100,000, and trading volumes increased 1.5 million lots.   Few imported goods entered China’s local market last Monday, so the proportion of Chinese copper to total supply increased. Standard-quality copper gained popularity, and cargo holders held prices firm. As a result, spot discounts for standard-quality copper narrowed and spot premiums for high-quality copper expanded. Traders sourced goods when copper prices were lower than RMB 40,000/mt. SHFE copper prices this week are likely to move at RMB 38,500-40,000/mt.    Aluminum SHFE 1504 aluminum contract became the most active one on January 26. The contract fell back immediately after breaking through the 20-day moving average, but the downside space was limited. Its trading range narrowed further to RMB 12,760-12,960/mt. In China’s spot market, sellers showed strong interest in selling at highs. Downstream consum......

Key words:
SMM LME lead prices
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