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SMM Lead Market Morning Review (2015-2-3)

Release time:2015-02-04

Feb 03, 2015 01:46 GMT   Source:SMM

 

 

SHANGHAI, Feb. 3 (SMM) – LME lead overnight started at USD 1,859.5/mt and hovered in a USD 1,850-1,860/mt range in the Asian trading session. During European and US trading hours, the price of the soft metal sank to a trough of USD 1,840/mt and finished at USD 1,845/mt. Trading volumes for three-month lead on the London Metal Exchange shed 634 lots to 3,008 lots, while positions gained 902 to 120,479. LME lead inventories dwindled 150 mt to 214,850 mt on Monday.

Lead for April delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the most active contract, opened at RMB 12,485/mt and then fluctuated at RMB 12,450-12,500/mt before ending down RMB 25/mt at RMB 12,440/mt in Monday’s night session. Trading volumes for the SHFE 1504 lead contract totaled only 884 lots.

HSBC’s final China manufacturing PMI for January, published on Monday, came in at 49.7, slightly below the initial reading of 49.8 and the final reading of 49.6 in December. The employment sub-index was finalized at 49.5, up from the initial reading of 49.1, but below 50 for a 15th straight month. The production sub-index rose for the first time since October, but the sub-index tracking average input cost recorded the biggest fall since March 2009. China’s official manufacturing PMI fell further to 49.8 in January, slipping below 50 for the first time since October 2012. These soft manufacturing figures have boosted market expectations that the Chinese government will unveil more stimulus measures to shore up its economy.

A string of US economic indicators were publicized on Monday. The so-called core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index rose 1.3% YoY in December, dovetailing with expectations, but falling short of a 1.4% increase in November. The index has been below the US Federal Reserve’s 2% target for a 32th month in succession. Information provider Markit’s final manufacturing PMI for January was 53.9, up a touch from December. ISM’s manufacturing PMI for January was reported at 53.5, well below 54.5 expected and hitting a refreshed 1-year low. The sub-indices measuring new orders and employment tumbled to 1-year and 7-month lows, respectively. Depressed by the dispiriting manufacturing data, the US dollar index fell slightly. However, US stocks fared well, with the Dow up over 1%.

The euro zone’s final manufacturing PMI hit a 6-month high of 51.0 in January, level with the initial reading, but up from the final reading of 50.6 in December. Germany, the largest economy in the single currency area, saw its Markit final manufacturing PMI down to 50.9 in January, below the initial reading and the final reading in December. France’s manufacturing PMI for January was revised downward to 49.2 from the initial estimate of 49.5.

The US dollar index eased 0.3%, while the euro rose 0.49% versus the greenback. Major European and US stocks finished higher. The Shanghai Composite Index fell over 2%. LME base metals were mixed, with tin down as much as 1.55%.

Despite support from a continued rebound in crude prices and high expectations for stimulus steps by the Chinese government, base metals prices are expected to stay rangebound on Tuesday due to prevailing market caution.

LME lead is set to test support at the 20-day moving average and USD 1,830-1,860/mt, while the most active SHFE 1504 lead contract is expected to move in RMB 12,400-12,520/mt on Tuesday. Spot lead in China should trade at RMB 12,500-12,600/mt.
 

Key words:
SMM LME lead prices
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